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BQ: Why do XG rollout winning changes increase after doubling?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 15 April 2011, at 11:06 p.m.

In Response To: BQ: Why do XG rollout winning changes increase after doubling? (leobueno)

The answer is that the "winning chances" don't mean what you think they mean; they're obtained via a complicated process that produces approximate numbers. See this post of mine for more details.

In general, you shouldn't take those numbers too literally; just think of them as rough guidelines. (In principle, it would not be difficult to program the bots to give accurate numbers rather than approximate numbers, at the cost of a slight slowdown in the computation. However, since nobody except me seems to care about the difference, the bot programmers have little incentive to make this change.)

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