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Nearly a prime AtS cube action

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Saturday, 16 April 2011, at 1:03 p.m.

In Response To: Nearly a prime AtS cube action (neilkaz)

Estimating white's chances is one thing, knowing how to play with the chances you have is another.

What makes this position interesting is Position, Race and Threats. Clearly, Blue has Prime and Position. What is perhaps not so clear is white's threats. If the 2 checkers on the deuce were on the three I would estimate ND/T. In this scenario, white's threats would be clear with some additional elements of a prime.

In this case however, I'm not sure whether white is slightly worse than 2/1 (based on PRAT) or whether white's small chance of completing a Prime from the 7 to the 2 makes this a take.

If you assign a value of 1 for Prime, Position and Threats I would estimate white's chances between .7 and .8 for Threats. Question is, is there enough priming chances for white to take here.

D/T - my glass is half full.

Majestyk

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