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BGonline.org Forums
BQ: Hit the ace or do something else?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: BQ: Hit the ace or do something else? (leobueno)
Date: Saturday, 16 April 2011, at 8:00 p.m.
2a4a is a tricky score. Often the leader doubles early and then it's gammon save, in which case you usually want to play safe and make sure you don't get gammoned. However, here you seem to have taken a commanding lead without ever giving White a chance to double, and you're very likely to win the game. If you were to offer a double here then White would surely drop; White needs 18% winning chances to take here and I don't think she can possibly have that. So the only reason you're playing on is that you're hoping for a gammon.
The gammon value is elevated here: If you win 1 point then you'll be leading 1-away/4-away Crawford, with about 82% MWC (match winning chances), if you win a gammon then obviously you'll be at 100%, and if you lose a single game you'll be leading 2-away/3-away with about 60% MWC. So your gammon value is (100-82)/(82-60) ~ 0.82, which is noticeably higher than the normal value of 0.5. (This calculation has to be taken with a slight grain of salt because if the tide turns against you suddenly enough then you could get a cube that you have to take, but I think it's a reasonable approximation to the truth.)
So I would hit here. Our opponent's position is so weak that getting hit back is not a problem. If we can make the 1pt then we can hit later blots more freely without worrying that White might make a double anchor that will give her gammon-saving chances. For the 4, I'm not sure, but I'd play 9/5 trying to cover the 1pt, and leaving no unnecessary blots in case of an unlucky sequence.
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