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3-a 4-a redouble?

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 4:55 a.m.

In Response To: 3-a 4-a redouble? (rambiz)

Blotting numbers [61, 52, 51] 6 numbers. He hit 1/3 of them [actally less, but that wont affect calculations by much and can be taken into acount if/when numbers come close to a borderline decision], therefore 2 hits.

Clearing numbers [62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 53, 54, 55, 33, 22] 16 numbers That leaves 14 numbers when Black will have an indirect shot from 7away 14*1/6 = 2 and 1/3 There are some repeaters, let’s round it up. Say 5 hits total.

Black doesn’t win every time he hits, but he is a solid favorite, say 2 to 1 favorite 5*2/3 = 3.1 wins in 36 games.

Last race take point for money is at 63 pips and 22%. 1 pips equals roughly 2.5% in a race of this lengh. 3 pips equal 7.5%, but the race is longer than it appears due to the wastage. Thus, Black has about 15% in the race when he doesn’t hit. 36-5=31

31*.15 =4.65 wins

4.65+3.1 = 7.75 wins in 36 games, that is 21.5%

Black's takepoint AtS is same as his equity at 4a1C 18.16%, that is easy take if doubled. Of course White should be doubling here since he s close to losing his market..

If Black's winning chances are 22%, I am still redoubling. Obviously I am doubling if the chances are 20%. Of course Black will have a take in each case.

Messages In This Thread

• 3-a 4-a redouble?
  rambiz -- Saturday, 16 April 2011, at 11:40 p.m.
  • 3-a 4-a redouble?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 4:55 a.m.