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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/16/11
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/16/11 (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 6:18 p.m.
1. White has three checkers far back and only 8 or 9 checkers in the zone (depending on whether you count the 11pt checker as being "in the zone"), and is not a favorite to cover the home-board blot. Blue has no extra blots to be picked up, and the pip count is pretty even. All these make me think this should be a take; White's three checkers back are perhaps the biggest factor in my mind. On the flip side of the coin, Blue does of course have two checkers on the bar and no new points made, and should be slightly quicker to drop ATS than for money. Still, I think this is a take. In fact, for money, I'm even slightly hesitant about the double, though I'd probably double for money. ATS, it's D/T for me.
2. Yuck! Giving up the 6pt is counterintuitive but technically it does avoid burying two more checkers and I think it reduces our chances of having to break down to a three-point board later if we roll poorly. Don't think I've had to face a similar decision before so this is uncharted territory for me but I'll play 6/5(3) 2/1.
3. Let's see if I remember my MET. If White drops she leads 2a6a for 80% MWC. If she takes and wins she has 100%, and if she takes and loses she leads 2a5a for 75% MWC. So her raw take point is 20%. A gammon loss puts her at 2a3a for 60% MWC so the trailer's gammon value is 15/25 = 0.6, slightly elevated. However, the position doesn't look excessively gammonish. White has only one checker behind Blue's solid five-prime versus Blue's two checkers behind White's broken five-prime. There was a problem recently with a similar flavor (one behind solid prime vs. two behind broken prime) where I underestimated the strength of the broken prime. The timing battle looks fairly even. White's major liability is that she's not at the edge of Blue's prime whereas Blue's two checkers are at the edge. Still, it looks to me like an easy take. Even if Blue leaps a checker he's hardly home free. In fact I don't think I'd double here; seems like too many things could go wrong. ND/T.
4. White has an advanced anchor so we want to split. Of course we're already slightly split so if we have something productive to do elsewhere then we might want to do that. However, there's nothing much productive to do elsewhere. Somehow I think we had a position like this recently where wild was best. I'll try 24/20 6/5 here; 1's are duplicated and nothing else looks too appealing.
5. I'm tempted to make the 5pt or the 4pt here but leaving a direct shot against White's three-point board looks like a big mistake. No heroics for me here. 13/8.
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