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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/17/111
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/17/111 (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 17 April 2011, at 10:05 p.m.
Another day, another chance to hear the donkey bray...
- 1: 10/4 6/4
- 20/10 is a strong contender, getting one man out and making an outside point. Usually a play that does 2 good things is better than a play that does only 1. Here I go with the 1 good thing because I think that one thing is that much better. I know that Blue wants the 4 point. The 10pt otoh isn't blocking anything, and is basically just providing safe builders for the points Blue really wants - far from useless, but not as valuable as the points themselves. And while getting one man out is valuable, covering the outfield has value too against White's stacked position, so all in all I think the gain from just making the 4pt is the winner here.
I am not sure which way the cube influences the choice, maybe 20/10 is the less volatile play more likely to creep up on a good cube, however 10/4 8/4 may produce a cube out of nowhere following an awkward roll from White. Not sure - so just make the play that seems best.
- 2: 20/11
- Even well behind in the race Blue is running out of time and something has got to give. Poking a hole in the board with 7/1 4/1 makes it hard to contain any checker hit. Giving up the midpoint 13/10 13/7 is almost resigning oneself to be satisfied with the indirect shot. The remaining plays 13/4 and 20/11 keeps pressure at the cost of some pay on aces. Of the two I think 20/11 is the better even if it gives up the backstop, and the payoff on 12,13 and esp 11 is worse. But the payoff on 14 and 15 is less and none on 16 - and maybe more important, it gives a little more timing which is important as White can play anything except 6s for a couple of rolls.
- 3: 24/13
- Simple plays... WIth an even race, and white having the advanced anchor, I cannot see why Blue should complicate.
- 4: b/22 8/7
- WDF, to paraphrase Chuck. I completely fail to see the theme that should make me choose another play. I see that BLue might get battered on the 22pt. but staying back isn't too hot in itself, and giving up another blot in order to do so seems far too costly. (And I sincerely hope that the theme is not that the upcoming hits should make me want to save the 3pt blot - in that case I think I'd rather not know...)
- 5: Double/take
- White's racing lead is quite a little less than the pip count says on account of White's awkwardness. This same awkwardness also should give Blue considerable shot equity, and combine for a reasonable take.
White otoh has 11, 13, 33, 61, 63 to make the 5 point which should be market losers, and no shots that leave a direct shot first turn, (although many shots leave the indirect 8-shot on 11, and does so awkwardly to boot). I think this means that White must double now.
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