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Daily Quiz 4/17/111
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/17/111 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 1:55 a.m.
Even for a postwhore like me, it's hard to keep up with these daily quizzes.
1. 10/4 8/4 is the obvious first candidate, making the 4pt. But I see three other candidates: anchoring with 24/20 10/4 or 24/20 13/7, and running with 20/10. If we play 10/4 then I think I prefer 24/20 to 8/4, making the 20pt anchor and leaving a blot on the 4pt in preference to making the 4pt and leaving two blots for White to potentially attack (most of White's doublets are very painful after 10/4 8/4). I'm not sure which anchoring play I prefer; 13/7 is riskier but gives us a nicer position if it works. As for running, the main argument is that we're already slightly ahead in the race, and running leaves White with few targets to attack. I'm going to try running here, although it's possible that that running is too greedy and that anchoring solidly is the better bet when there's still so much contact and the race is relatively close. 20/10.
2. I hate these. I never seem to choose the right asset to relinquish. This far behind in the race, I don't think that breaking anchor is correct. That leaves holding the midpoint with 7/1 4/1, giving up the midpoint entirely with 13/10 13/7, or leaving a blot on the midpoint with 13/10 7/1 or 13/4. Leaving a blot on the midpoint versus abandoning the midpoint gains on 62 63 64 65 but loses on any ace. It doesn't look worth it, with White's four-point board and spares to play. 7/1 4/1 has the advantage of giving us a lot more shots if White rolls an immediate 6 (other than 66). Of course we sacrifice our board, but it doesn't kill any checkers and we have decent chances of remaking the 4pt with the checkers from our midpoint. We could be embarrassed if we roll a 1 next time, but I think the immediate payoff on White's 6's is worth the (hopefully temporary) board-cracking. 7/1 4/1.
3. I see three candidates: the obvious 24/13, two down with 13/8 13/7, and split with 24/18 13/8. Two down looks like the wrong idea; the bar point has little value here, so slotting it just gives White the option of hitting if it benefits her to do so. So after 24/18 do we continue with 18/13 or do we bring down a checker from the midpoint? 13/8 certainly gives us better distribution than 18/13, but aren't we risking an awful lot of shots? Well, a lot of rolls that hit also make a good inner-board point for White, and we do have a slightly stronger board than White does. 24/13 leaves our rear checker rather stranded in the face of a lot of White ammunition. I'll try 24/18 13/8.
4. I'd like to enter on the 24pt to stay out of dodge, but then where's the 3? Seems that bar/22 is basically forced. Now it's a choice between 8/7 and 3/2. I think we're in serious danger here so I'm going to make the weenie play. Bar/22 3/2.
5. Let's see which rolls force White to leave an indirect shot: 66 62 51 44 42 31 22 11. There's also some future shot vig because of White's gappy structure. Blue is 19 pips behind but I think the shot vig is enough for a take. And I double because I think it's a close take at best.
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