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54S-31P-54S-61 and variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 5:18 a.m.

In Response To: BQ: Which bar point to try for (leobueno)

154


2O ' ' ' '5X '5X ' ' '5O

1X ' '1X2O4O '2O ' ' '3X

54S-31P-54S-61163


154


1O ' ' ' '5X '5X ' ' '5O

1X ' '1X2O4O '2O ' ' '3X

64R-54S-31P-54S-63H-31H-61164


Okay. I read too much into your comments.

For reference, your fourth roll position is on the left. My variant is on the right.

The race is close, so White's offensive candlesticks notwithstanding, in both cases I lean towards 24/18 with the 6, rather than giving White's back checkers a double shot (softened but probably not negated by 3 duplication). The 6 is likely a close decision, though, especially on the left.

On the left, regardless of the 6, I would play 6/5 with the ace. That is, spreading the builders with N (Near, 13/7 6/5) looks preferable to leaving fewer shots with P (Point, 13/7 8/7), taking the 3 duplication and Opp's weaker board into account.

Btw, in your original position (on the left), Stick's suggested sequence of 51S-31P-52S-61 also works, as does 52S-31P-51S-61. However, the underlined play of 52S is probably White's fourth best play, whereas the underlined 51S is third best, and the underlined 54S in my caption is the second best play, though in all three sequences the size of the S error compared to R is the same. White's R (Running to the 16pt) would have retained more balanced distribution of four checkers each on the midpoint and 8pt.

Nack

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