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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/18/11
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/18/11 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 12:02 p.m.
- 1: 13/8
- The pay now play 11/7 8/7 is tempting, especially as it works well with an unturned cube - likely to give efficient cubes for Blue, while hitting the 4 indirects followed by dances are massive market losers for White. However only one of the pay now/later criteria points clearly to paying now: If Blue pays now and gets away with he is pretty much home free, he has compacted his position and cleared one point, and if the dice gives him the race lead he needs he can reach a doubling position without having to volunteer additional shots. The other two are inconclusive: White's board is already mighty strong, but won't get any weaker. Blue may well have to give shots later, but he has a number of clearing rolls as well, and a little time to do so. I think this ends up with "when in doubt pay later", and I prefer the simple 13/8 which is easier to play later, and in particular lets doubles play magnificently.
- 2: 6/5* 6/5 6/4
- Blue seem to get a slightly higher gammon price than for money, 15/26 ~ .58 If Blue pigs it with 6/5*(3) 1/0, he risks the parlay dance - 65 - hit, with P=25/36*2/36*11/36 which should be somewhat over 1% meaning he needs to win about 2% more G to justify it. The main loss of gammons after the text play comes from having to open the 5 point one roll earlier - when Blue rolls 5 or 6 next turn and White enters. This happens about 1/6 of all variations, add to this some late variations when the missing checker off makes a difference, maybe Blue misses out on 1/4 of all the gammons got after the pigging play. Does Blue have 8% gammons to start with? I don't think so, so play safe.
Last play considered 1/0(4) seems to do worse on both counts - leaves shots, and isn't best for the gammon either - Blue must put White on bar to get the gammon
- 3: b/20 24/20
- I pass on the see-a-blot-hit-a-blot play here. Even if it is good to hit White, Blue will still be behind both in race and number of men back, and White will often hit the 5-point slot which is Blues only development up front. Note also that White's stacked position is quite good for mutual attacking games. b/20 24/20 reduces the value of White's 6-point stack, exploits the 2-dup, and lets White worry about what to do with his slot.
- 4: 6/4(2)
- Trick question? Isn't 6/4(2) almost always best here? Of course this could be the exception, 24/22(2) is definitely valuable, but I trust the general rule here.
- 5: 6/4 24/20* 22/20
- Another trick question? 6/4 24/20* 22/20 seems to play itself here. At an even score with an unturned cube securing the solid advantage seems to be paramount.
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