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Position 2 - rollouts of two variants

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 3:44 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/9/11 (Stick)

As 3 of 5 people answered wrong on Position 2, I'm posting rollouts of two variant positions.

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In first variant, doubler has 4pt instead of 5pt:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 154 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----A-EbC---cD---bbdAb--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	71,18% (G: 22,79% B: 0,90%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28,82% (G: 5,43% B: 0,18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71,06% (G: 28,02% B: 1,02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28,94% (G: 5,87% B: 0,26%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,424
Double:	+1,301
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,836 (-0,164)
Double/Take:	+1,074 (+0,074)
Double/Drop:	+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45297676 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,010 (+0,826...+0,847)
Confidence Double:	± 0,018 (+1,056...+1,092)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 17 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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In second variant, doubler has even worse position - 2pt instead of 5pt. But still, doubling is correct.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 133 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 155 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----A-EbC---cD---bbd-A-bA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66,57% (G: 22,12% B: 0,80%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33,43% (G: 6,79% B: 0,31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66,77% (G: 24,05% B: 0,78%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33,23% (G: 6,97% B: 0,36%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,331
Double:	+1,021
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,711 (-0,069)
Double/Take:	+0,780
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,220)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45297676 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,013 (+0,698...+0,725)
Confidence Double:	± 0,019 (+0,761...+0,800)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 17 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 4/9/11
  Stick -- Saturday, 9 April 2011, at 11:54 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/9/11
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 9 April 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/9/11
    Lucas Bauer -- Saturday, 9 April 2011, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/9/11
    Stein Kulseth -- Sunday, 10 April 2011, at 10:38 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/9/11
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 10 April 2011, at 2:53 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/9/11
    misja -- Monday, 11 April 2011, at 7:34 p.m.
  • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 3:44 p.m.
    • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 5:17 p.m.
      • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 5:44 p.m.
        • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
          mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 5:47 p.m.
      • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
        mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 5:45 p.m.
        • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 5:55 p.m.
        • Position 2 - rollouts of two variants
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 6:49 p.m.