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BGonline.org Forums
43D-63H-61U-42 and 63R-64S-42
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: BQ: Hit or not hit? (leobueno)
Date: Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:12 a.m.
In the third roll position shown in the right-hand diagram, I recall from an old trunc that p (point, 15/11 13/11) is better than both P (Point, 8/4 6/4) and H (Hit, 13/7) by about .05.
168
43D-63H-61U-42 158
157
63R-64S-42 158
On the surface, it might seem that Blue should be even more willing to play p in the left-hand diagram, in order to avoid leaving a blot when he is 11 pips even further ahead in the race. However, IMO the race factor is outweighed by these relative effects on the left-hand diagram:
(a) If White anchors on Blue's 7pt, his 4pt will still serve to contain White's remaining back checker;
(b) White's midpoint has only one spare (it is less efficient to hit from there); and
(c) White's 62 and 21 are better duplicated, her 31 is well duplicated, and she will no longer hit with 43.I believe it is therefore more reasonable (closer) to leave the 15pt blot and play P (make the 4pt). That said, though, I would still play p (make the 11pt).
I would guess that H is an even bigger mistake (blunder?) in the left-hand position than in the right-hand position.
Nack
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