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43D-63H-61U-42 and 63R-64S-42

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:12 a.m.

In Response To: BQ: Hit or not hit? (leobueno)

168


1O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X1O '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O1X3O ' ' '3X

43D-63H-61U-42158


157


1O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X1O '5O

1X ' ' ' '5O1X3O ' ' '4X

63R-64S-42158


In the third roll position shown in the right-hand diagram, I recall from an old trunc that p (point, 15/11 13/11) is better than both P (Point, 8/4 6/4) and H (Hit, 13/7) by about .05.

On the surface, it might seem that Blue should be even more willing to play p in the left-hand diagram, in order to avoid leaving a blot when he is 11 pips even further ahead in the race. However, IMO the race factor is outweighed by these relative effects on the left-hand diagram:

(a) If White anchors on Blue's 7pt, his 4pt will still serve to contain White's remaining back checker;
(b) White's midpoint has only one spare (it is less efficient to hit from there); and
(c) White's 62 and 21 are better duplicated, her 31 is well duplicated, and she will no longer hit with 43.

I believe it is therefore more reasonable (closer) to leave the 15pt blot and play P (make the 4pt). That said, though, I would still play p (make the 11pt).

I would guess that H is an even bigger mistake (blunder?) in the left-hand position than in the right-hand position.

Nack

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