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Daily Quiz 4/19/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 21 April 2011, at 12:40 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/19/11 (Stick)

1. I'll treat this as a money-like score. A hit followed by a dance loses our market. We probably lose our market if we hop both checkers past unless White rolls big doublets; the raw pip count looks close but White has more wastage than we do. Looks like a double to me. Can White take? 61 62 63 blot, and the race looks close enough that I think White can find 9 wins (gammon losses don't look significant). D/T.

2. Blue is 19 pips down so he can't take unless he has good shot vig. White's 65 and 64 blot immediately. The gaps in White's structure could cause trouble down the line. I think Blue can take. White certainly has market losers and relatively few disaster numbers, so I double as White.

3. Do we want White to rush forwards or do we hit and hope to escape while White is busy? If we play 7/4 7/3 then White's 6's are excellent and White's 5's, 4's, and 1's play comfortably. I don't think we're likely to outlast White if we don't hit. If we do hit, then we buy some time to escape our checker—if we don't get hit back. Even if we are hit back we still have chances; we could send a second White checker back. Gammon losses don't matter here so I'm going to hit. 7/3 4/1*.

4. We outboard our opponent so it's worth looking at bold plays. Ahead in the race, we can consider breaking anchor with 20/11. We could also consider slotting with 13/4 or even 13/7 13/10. Slotting still leaves us with the question of when to break anchor. I think now is the time to run. 20/11.

5. If White drops she has 37%; if she takes and wins she has 57%; if she takes and loses she has 30%. Pretty close to money. Seems like a clear double with position and threats and an even race. I think White can take although recent posts here have made me realize I'm too optimistic about the underdog's chances in these sorts of positions. D/T.

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 4/19/11
  Stick -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 2:39 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/19/11
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 21 April 2011, at 12:40 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/19/11
    misja -- Friday, 22 April 2011, at 9:08 a.m.