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BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Saturday, 23 April 2011, at 12:03 a.m.

In Response To: BQ: Hit or not hit? (leobueno)

After tying up my laptop for a long time, I got to the inconclusive rollout below.

13/7* is the the third choice; JSD > 5, so from what y'all have indicated, we can rule it out.

8/4 6/4 is the second choice; JSC < 3, so is it really the second best play?

15/11 13/11 comes out as best play.

Is this worthy of a deeper rollout?

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 4: leo to play 42

gnubg	168
leo	158
Position ID: 4HPhIDDgc/AJIA Match ID: cAkKAAAAAAAA

• leo moves 15/11 13/11

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0.156
	0.558 0.155 0.009 - 0.442 0.119 0.004
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	+0.229
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.771
3.	Double, take	+0.011	-0.218
Proper cube action:		No double, take (22.0%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	15/11 13/11	+0.194
			0.552 0.131 0.007 - 0.448 0.114 0.004 +0.124 +0.194 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7448 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881195808 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/4 6/4	+0.174 ( -0.020)
			0.544 0.152 0.009 - 0.456 0.123 0.005 +0.121 +0.174 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7451 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881195808 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/7*	+0.126 ( -0.068)
			0.532 0.155 0.010 - 0.468 0.135 0.006 +0.088 +0.126 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2436 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 881195808 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	3	24/22 15/11	+0.006 ( -0.188)
			0.507 0.130 0.006 - 0.493 0.146 0.005
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
	5	3	15/9	-0.032 ( -0.226)
			0.495 0.129 0.005 - 0.505 0.148 0.005
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
	6	3	24/20 15/13	-0.037 ( -0.231)
			0.498 0.112 0.005 - 0.502 0.147 0.004
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

Messages In This Thread

• BQ: Hit or not hit?
  leobueno -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 10:58 p.m.
  • 43D-63H-61U-42
    Stick -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 11:00 p.m.
    • 43D-63H-61U-42
      leobueno -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 11:09 p.m.
      • 43D-63H-61U-42
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 2:25 a.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
  • 43D-63H-61U-42 and 63R-64S-42
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:12 a.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:27 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive
    leobueno -- Saturday, 23 April 2011, at 12:03 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 23 April 2011, at 11:24 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    leobueno -- Sunday, 24 April 2011, at 12:57 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 24 April 2011, at 2:57 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 24 April 2011, at 7:52 a.m.