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BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 23 April 2011, at 11:24 p.m.

In Response To: BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive (leobueno)

Is this worthy of a deeper rollout?

By "deeper," do you mean more trials? If I'm remembering how to interpret the details correctly, your result of [p P20] /7 tells us that if you roll out these two plays on these settings a billion times, p is 95+% to end up better than P by a margin between .006 to .036. [That assumes that GnuBG doesn't underestimate variance; otherwise (as I suspect) it is wider.]

If all you care about is the answer to the question, "Is p the best play," then most people would consider 7k trials with a .020 margin to be passable.

If what you want is a reliable margin (as is generally my goal) for fairly "close" plays (say a top-plays margin within .03) of an early game position, I usually prefer to see 15k trials, though as long as there is at least 5k (even if the top plays are in a several-way dead heat, that's okay), I am comfortable that I won't be badly "misled" by the whims of variance.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• BQ: Hit or not hit?
  leobueno -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 10:58 p.m.
  • 43D-63H-61U-42
    Stick -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 11:00 p.m.
    • 43D-63H-61U-42
      leobueno -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 11:09 p.m.
      • 43D-63H-61U-42
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 2:25 a.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 April 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
  • 43D-63H-61U-42 and 63R-64S-42
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:12 a.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:27 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 20 April 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive
    leobueno -- Saturday, 23 April 2011, at 12:03 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit? *ROLLOUT* inconclusive
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 23 April 2011, at 11:24 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    leobueno -- Sunday, 24 April 2011, at 12:57 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 24 April 2011, at 2:57 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 24 April 2011, at 7:52 a.m.