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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 17 December 2006, at 5:21 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Saturday Dec. 16th (Stick)

Forced is 13/5(2). There's no way you're going to rip down all 3 from the midpoint or trash your inner board. After this you're left with the choice of 8/4(2) or 5/1(2). 8/4(2) makes the stronger board, keeps the board blotless, and wastes the least amount of pipage in case this does turn to a race. I see no upside of making the ace point compared to the 4 pt. aside from you're left stacked (but semi decently distributed) in your inner board. I think 8/4(2) is clear here.


Match to 25, White leads 6 to 2
127
150
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/5 8/4(2) -0.288
0.3% 9.5% 41.2% 58.8% 11.6% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.198 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 27064 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/5 5/1(2) -0.329 (-0.041)
0.3% 10.4% 40.2% 59.8% 12.7% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.222 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 29515 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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