BGonline.org Forums

Daily Quiz 4/27

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Wednesday, 27 April 2011, at 10:48 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/27 (Stick)

1: 18/12 4/3

I am chickening out for Blue here, the bold play leaves 5 blots and 18 shots backed up by a White 5 pt board. The gammon rate on the hitting variations must be way over 50%, plus when missed Blue may not cover, and after any White hit later there will be renewed gammon danger thanks to White's strong board. I'd guess the overall gammonrate may be up to 50% here. If I rate the position after the weenie play as a single loss, not giving credit for more wins than necessary to offset the remaining gammons (which seems very conservative), the bold play must win well over 25%, as the gammon prize is a little higher than for money - I don't think Blue is favorite even when missed, so I don't see the risk/reward ratio allowing for the bold play here. Lastly the weenie play is actually very comfortable, filling in the 4 pt board, and efficiently aiming for the 6pt.

2: 11/5 6/5

I know Blue wants his 5pt, the stack on 6 is begging to go there, and the play saves the forward blot that will lose more pips if being hit. The alternatives (22/16 17/16 - 17/11 8/7) may save 2 blots, but the points they make are not really valuable, and may even just be problematic to clear later. By keeping the two blots Blue retains a lot of flexibility for his next rolls.

3: 8/4 8/6

Blue wants to start liberating some of his back men ASAP, but I think 24/20 12/10 leaving the 4 point blot is too big. 24/20 4/2* may be better, but the blot is an eyesore on the 2pt, often requiring Blue to break his 4-prime to cover it next turn and be left with an impure position with which to try to contain White while he works the back checkers. I think Blue must make the 4pt now, and then avoid the liability of the 8pt blot by playing 8/6. He will have to trust his 4-prime for now, and be content that 3s 4s and 6s all work for springing back checkers, and 5s too in a squeeze, and that having solidified his position up front he can use all his attention on them.

4: 15/13 7/2

Nothing looks good here, but at least this play gives fewest shots, and is most likely to let Blue keep his racing lead.

5: Double/Drop

White has position, race and threats. Blue's TP is quite a bit lower than for money, but I will let this go.

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 4/27
  Stick -- Wednesday, 27 April 2011, at 5:50 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/27
    Lucas Bauer -- Wednesday, 27 April 2011, at 6:44 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/27
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 April 2011, at 10:16 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/27
    Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 27 April 2011, at 10:48 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 4/27
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 28 April 2011, at 2:56 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 4/27
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 April 2011, at 1:12 a.m.