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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/27
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/27 (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 28 April 2011, at 1:12 a.m.
1. If we hit, how many bad rolls does White have? Nine rolls dance, 41 51 61 64 65 enter but miss, for a total of 19 rolls. The hitting rolls are all pretty devastating; perhaps 62 is the least painful, since we're hit only once and get a direct shot in return, but it's still bad. We'll lose almost all of these and I think most of our losses will be gammons, with some backgammons. If we're not hit back then our winning chances are much better but I don't think we're a favorite. Maybe we win 20% to 25% overall after 22/15*? And maybe 45% gammon losses overall? If we don't hit but play 18/12 4/3, then White has 4 rolls that fail to clean up the blot but our winning chances are pretty small. I'll guess 10% overall. As for the gammon race, we'll need at least 68 pips. White has 65 pips but will waste some, so we're a slight favorite to get off the gammon. Maybe 30% gammon losses? These are all WAGs but they lean me towards hitting. It seems that we lose a lot of gammons anyway if we don't hit, and we have decent winning chances after hitting due to White's 19 bad rolls.
2. Always make the 5pt? The alternatives don't seem compelling. 11/5 6/5.
3. The key question seems to be whether to cover with 8/4 or to get ready to spring out with 24/20. If we cover with 8/4 and then play 8/6 or 12/10, then what will happen next? We'll probably have to run off the front anchor with large numbers. That's not a disaster but we're more vulnerable to attack than if we hold both anchors. If we play 24/20 and then either hit with 4/2* or scoot with 12/10, then we could get hit back but we'll have retained all our assets. On balance, I think that since we've already sent two White checkers back, we'd rather not get hit and give White time to scramble them around. So I play 8/4. I'm not sure about the 2, but following the same logic I clean up my blot with 8/6 8/4.
4. If we make the outfield point then White has 29 return shots. If we double hit then White has 20 return shots but they're typically more painful because our position is disjointed. On the other hand the double hit could lead to a blitz, with 9 checkers in the zone. Still, if just one of our checkers gets sent back then we'll be short of ammunition for the blitz. I guess I play 22/15 but I'm not sure.
5. If we drop we have 30%, if we take and lose we have 23%, and if we take and win we have 50%. Gammon values are elevated but not by much. So this is not too far from a money-game decision. Blue's homeboard checkers are effectively out of play and his straggler is in serious danger of being primed and then attacked. Blue may expose more checkers trying to come home. Even if he hits White, containment will be difficult. D/P for me.
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