| |
BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/28
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/28 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 29 April 2011, at 12:41 a.m.
1. It's gammon save so 21/20 is the obvious ace, but then what's the 5? It looks like it's either 6/1* or 10/5. It seems that 6/1* must lose too often so I'll eliminate that first. The other candidate is of course 10/5 6/5. So let's back up to the beginning and play 10/5 first and compare 6/5 with 21/20. At a normal score 6/5 would be clear but here I'm not sure, especially with White's 11 checkers stacked up waiting to unload on us. How many strong rolls does White have after 10/5 6/5? All 6 doublets are strong, and 31 51 42 62 53 64 PoH. Several other rolls double hit. It looks counterintuitive but I'm going to go with 21/20 10/5 ATS.
2. White's five-point board demands some respect. 10/9 5/2 leaves the fewest shots (3) but I think 6/5 6/3 gives a much more flexible position for only one more shot. The only other play that seems worth considering is 4/1* 2/1. We'll lose when White hits, often losing a gammon since we have another blot lying around, but if White dances then we have 15 rolls that close the board and we win most of the other games too. Overall I'd guess we win about 60-65% after PoH. In favor of the safe play is the fact that we have a sizable race lead, and White will probably relinquish her midpoint soon, most likely giving White only indirect shots as we bring our checkers home. I think we win more games with 6/5 6/3 but we give up most of our gammon wins. A difficult choice for me but I'll pay later with 6/5 6/3.
3. The obvious play is PoH with 14/2* 6/2, but owning the cube, we should give some thought to whether it's overkill. I don't think any other play gives us a cash most of the time so I'll just go with 14/2* 6/2.
4. The natural start is 13/4 covering, and then 13/10 looks better to me, especially ATS with a gammon value of 0.6, than 24/21. Alternatively, we could leave the 4pt blot uncovered and play either 8/5(2) 6/3(2) or 13/10(2) 8/5(2). Of these I think 13/10(2) 8/5(2) is better since it usually retains the initiative even after we're hit. Still, it must lose more often than simply covering, and even if it wins more gammons, 0.6 is not that elevated a gammon value. 13/10 13/4.
5. Same score; hitting with 8/1* looks clear. I can't see the QF play.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.