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Let's call those plays R (Run) and D (Down).
The biggest difference I see in the equities is on 41, 42 and 54 responses. These are the rolls which hit in the outfield after 44D (Down 24-16*, 13-9(2)). 43 makes the bar after 64S so it is a little different.
I think you're right not to count 43, but I also would not count 54. After D in both positions, it is either correct to anchor or hitting with 43 or 54 is right by too smallish a margin to have a meaningful effect. That leaves 41 and 42, the difference being that White retains a better distribution hitting off the midpoint after 64S-44D than after 54S-44D.
After 54D, the mid-point has only one spare left. Leaving a blot in front of it costs less than it does after 64S when there are four checkers left there. That appears to be the point to me. Don't place your blots in front of stacks.
Good advice. :)
I think we need to find more, though. The difference in D/R margins of your 64S-44 and 54D-44 XG 4-ply evals is .054, and for the full rollout aggregates it is about the same, .050. The rolls of 42 and 41 occur only 1/9 of the time combined, and they don't make a difference of (.050 x 9) = .450, or .225 each, when they do occur. It's not hit vs no-hit; it's distribution-difference when hit.
As I see it, after 64S-44D, Blue will usually make an advanced anchor with 14 numbers (61 62 63 64 65 52 33), at which point White will have been a lot better off having escaped his last back checker by anchoring on the 16pt. By contrast, after 54D-44D, only 55 and 44 make an advanced anchor. IMO, this is the main reason it's better to play R on the left and D on the right.
A variant to consider is the artificial position where White has opened with 654, coming out with the 6 and down with both 5 and 4, and Blue has rolled 44 in reply. If my theory is correct, Blue's D/R margin should be closer to that of 64S-44 than that of 54D-44 in spite of the race being worse for Blue.
Nack