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Cube action?

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 7:12 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (Marcos Nahhas)

I'd double and drop because I don't think you have enough counter-play with the checker on the bar. However, I think the decision is close, because you also rate to win gammons quite a lot, and a gammon win on 4 wins it for you AtS. At -8 -4 it looks to me like double and take.

To get a handle on the position, you need to make assumptions on the gammon fractions for both sides, maybe assume that all your wins come after a recube, and half your losses come after a recube. Plus you need an estimate for the number of wins for both sides; I guess you will win a bit less than 35%.

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