BGonline.org Forums

XGR+ Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 2 May 2011, at 2:19 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (Marcos Nahhas)

I saw there was a lot of discussion of this problem so I thought a high level rollout might help clear up any confusion. I didn't really follow the details of the thread so hope this helps. There is of course quite a bit of variance left in the rollout but the reported confidence for both the d/nd decision and t/p decision is 100%.

White is Player 1 score: 7 pip: 170 11 point match pip: 109 score: 4 Blue is Player 2 XGID=abCBBBBA--b-----bbBcc---A-:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.45% (G:38.38% B:6.75%) 64.65% (G:39.05% B:15.86%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.55% (G:4.80% B:0.20%) 35.35% (G:5.36% B:0.17%) Cubeless Equities +0.843 +1.666 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.786 (-0.078) ±0.024 (+0.762..+0.811) Double/Take: +0.865 ±0.034 (+0.831..+0.899) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.135) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 575 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88768903 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ Search interval: Large Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 day 02 hours 59 minutes

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action?
  Marcos Nahhas -- Friday, 29 April 2011, at 4:15 p.m.
  • Cube action?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 12:34 a.m.
    • Cube action?
      Marcos Nahhas -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 3:00 a.m.
      • Cube action?
        Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 7:12 a.m.
        • Rollout
          Marcos Nahhas -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 1:27 p.m.
          • Rollout
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 6:06 p.m.
            • Rollout
              Marcos Nahhas -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 6:13 p.m.
              • Rollout
                Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 6:21 p.m.
                • Rollout
                  Marcos Nahhas -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 9:28 p.m.
          • Something doesn't look right
            Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 30 April 2011, at 10:37 p.m.
            • false alarm
              Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 1:44 a.m.
              • false alarm
                Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 7:36 a.m.
                • cube efficiency
                  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 3:49 p.m.
                  • cube efficiency
                    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 4:32 p.m.
                    • Kit's method
                      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 5:15 p.m.
          • Variant Rollout
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
            • Variant Rollout
              Marcos Nahhas -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 3:55 p.m.
            • Variant Rollout 2
              Marcos Nahhas -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 5:03 p.m.
              • Variant Rollout 2
                Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 5:21 p.m.
  • XGR+ Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 2:19 a.m.