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72-game rollouts in XG

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 May 2011, at 4:02 p.m.

In Response To: 72-game rollouts in XG (neilkaz)

Neil, obviously I'm not going to use 72-game rollouts as a final verdict on anything. However, when I'm trying to decide how long a rollout to set up, I typically look at the sizes of the confidence intervals I'm getting with a low number of trials, and then I extrapolate by estimating that the confidence interval will halve whenever I quadruple the number of trials. If there's usually a sudden drop from 71 to 72 trials then that's good to be aware of when making such estimates.

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