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Rollout: 65R-42P-44P-64

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 May 2011, at 9:53 p.m.

In Response To: 65R-42P-44P-64 (Timothy Chow)

I knew that if my opponent had just rolled 55 (played 13/3(2)) then I was supposed to play 64D (13/9 13/7). My "explanation" was that with a sizable deficit in the race, and with the opponent having a potentially powerful blitz with ten checkers in the zone and two home-board points already made, the best game plan was to try to counterprime, and to sit tight on the anchor to avoid getting attacked.

This "explanation" seemed to me to apply in this position as well, so I played 64D. However, the rollout favors 64S (24/18 13/9). I can't quite figure out an "explanation" for the difference. It seems we're still vulnerable to being attacked if we split the back checkers. However, perhaps it's worse to be hit on our 7pt when the opponent owns her 5pt already?

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 140 Money session Jacoby pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a--B-D-B---dE---c-eb---B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.	Rollout1	24/18 13/9	eq: -0.476
	Player: Opponent: 39.19% (G:9.27% B:0.39%) 60.81% (G:20.19% B:0.97%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.491...-0.461) Duration: 4 hours 12 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/9 13/7	eq: -0.525 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 38.46% (G:9.63% B:0.37%) 61.54% (G:19.71% B:1.64%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.539...-0.511) Duration: 3 hours 51 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/14	eq: -0.551 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 37.43% (G:7.79% B:0.33%) 62.57% (G:20.41% B:0.67%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.565...-0.537) Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• 65R-42P-44P-64
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 7:13 p.m.
  • 65R-42P-44P-64
    Turz -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 1:42 p.m.
  • 65R-42P-44P-64
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 2:46 p.m.
  • 65R-42P-44P-64
    ah_clem -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 4:39 p.m.
  • Rollout: 65R-42P-44P-64
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 9:53 p.m.
    • Rollout: 65R-42P-44P-64
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 10:16 p.m.
  • 65R-42P-44P-64
    Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 3 May 2011, at 6:27 p.m.
    • 65R-42P-44P-64
      Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 3 May 2011, at 6:29 p.m.