BGonline.org Forums

Daily Quiz 5/1

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Monday, 2 May 2011, at 10:17 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/1 (Stick)

1: 14/9 13/11

A proper old-fashioned blitz where White has no blockade, and Blue's back men is split to boot, so the main theme is to get the attackers in, and I think it is significantly better to leave the back checkers alone.

13/8 13/11 diversifies them all and gets a checker in range of the 2 point, but does pay off slightly to 22 and also to 55 which leaves Blue with many blots scattered when White enters. Also over 2 rolls, White may enter and anchor, and suddenly Blue may want his mid point back. For the play to be correct I think the diversification must show more good rolls next turn than the alternative 14/9 13/11 (14/9 10/8 must be weaker than both failing to get three builders for the 5pt.)

So, play A 13/8 13/11 vs B 14/9 13/11. Rolls that make 5, A: 7 (65,63,53,33) B: 7 (65,64,54,44). Rolls that *don't* hit on 5pt, A: none, B: 2(21), Rolls that hit on 2pt (except the ones that make 5), A 18: (66,64,62,61,54,53,51,44,42,22,11), B: 18:(63,62,61,54,53,52,44,43,33,22,11). No big difference in number of rolls, and while I don't expect a big difference equitywise either I prefer keeping the mid point (busted though the myth may be:-).

2: b/21 8/7*

Blue has small but real chances of constructing a counter-prime, and this play keeps them alive. Also I don't think the backup back game plan is significantly worsened. The second anchor is not made but White will hardly escape without hitting something, and White is not attacking deep for some time yet, so Blue is very likely to make it. More importantly, Blue secures not only that he then has a 5th checker so that he has one to spring, but this one is already positioned at the edge. I expect this to be a somewhat better than b/24 8/4 which seems the best of the others.

3: Double/drop

White is behind in match, and will wield a powerful recube, but the extra power Blue has from threatening to get to Crawford makes White's take point not much less than for money. Using Kit's standard calculation for scores like these, and assuming that White cubes Blue in for the match on any excuse, making sure all his wins are on 8, but that in half of Blue's wins White never sees daylight and gets away with losing 4 to Crawford. Then White's TP is still ~20% , less than for money, also noting that gammons become largely irrelevant AtS , but not dramatically so.

So I think there should be a lot of doubt about the take, and the double seems clear. I am inclined to drop for White here. Entering, jumping, and running through the outfield are 3 difficult tasks in succession. White has some additional equity in being able to attack and contain the back man, but the open 5 point that will remain open will make that very difficult.

4: Double/drop

I often get surprised at how much equity is left in Prime vs Prime positions, and I think this might be close. Blues rolls seem to play well, and with 7 other outfield crossovers there is significant gammon danger, so I go with a small drop.

5:b/22 13/9

Probably not my OTB play, more a QF play, but it makes sense. Blue will have some pointmakers on the entering checkers anyway, now those attack on the worse point and do not address the potentially groiwing prime. Attacking the 9 or 14pt blots give up important points, and are fraught with danger. 5s are quite duplicated. I think this play taking advantage of White's weak position is OK - fighting bad position with good position.

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 5/1
  Stick -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 7:22 p.m.
  • deja vu?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 9:20 p.m.
    • deja vu?
      Stick -- Sunday, 1 May 2011, at 11:13 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 5/1
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 5/1
    Turz -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 1:28 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 5/1
    Stein Kulseth -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 10:17 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 5/1
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 May 2011, at 11:51 p.m.