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Rollout: 65 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 5 May 2011, at 6:19 p.m.

In Response To: 65 to play (Timothy Chow)

I played 22/16 13/8 here (it was actually at 7a7a, playing against XGR+, but I believe the difference between 7a7a and money is insignificant for this position), and XG 3-ply nodded in approval, as did XGR+, but GNU 2-ply frowned. The rollout below agrees with GNU, though the difference between the plays is not huge.

I reasoned that I was going to get cubed either way and that it was better to leap the prime with a 6 and make a bid for the outfield than to let White take the outfield and be forced to crunch. According to the bots, though, White has a big double after 22/16 13/8 and doesn't quite have a double after 13/2. Apart from the obvious merits of cleaning up all blots and making a five-point board, I think that 13/2 has Blue's race lead going for it. White has a few awkward rolls that force her to break her five-prime immediately, but more significantly, even if White claims the outfield and Blue starts to crunch, Blue is not dead yet because he still has chances to make a late break and win the race. It's a close call, though, and I think if Blue's position were just slightly less vulnerable to being attacked, then breaking anchor would be correct.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 111 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBcB-C----A---bbbbbBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	13/2	eq: -0.711
	Player: Opponent: 32.99% (G:6.07% B:0.10%) 67.01% (G:14.41% B:0.44%) Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.717...-0.705) Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/16 13/8	eq: -0.735 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 34.85% (G:9.24% B:0.21%) 65.15% (G:26.55% B:0.74%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.745...-0.725) Duration: 4 hours 35 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• 65 to play
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 4 May 2011, at 2:51 p.m.
  • 65 to play
    Lucas Bauer -- Wednesday, 4 May 2011, at 3:12 p.m.
  • 65 to play
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 4 May 2011, at 3:34 p.m.
  • 65 to play
    Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 4 May 2011, at 3:46 p.m.
  • 65 to play
    Turz -- Wednesday, 4 May 2011, at 5:12 p.m.
  • Rollout: 65 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 May 2011, at 6:19 p.m.
    • Rollout: 65 to play
      Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 5 May 2011, at 8:12 p.m.
      • Rollout: 65 to play
        Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 5 May 2011, at 8:23 p.m.
      • Rollout: 65 to play
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 6 May 2011, at 1:23 a.m.