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Now that Blue has the 1pt blot, there is a lot of incentive to cover it. If he is able to hit (with a fly shot, or with a return shot after himself getting hit inside), he will hate having the liability of the 1pt blot.
My second choice is D (Down, 13/7 8/7, could also be P or 7). If Blue plays a (attack, 11/5 6/5, could also be p or 5), his 11pt blot is picked off with 8 numbers.
If White's anchor is backed up from the 21pt to the 22pt, as shown in the right-hand variant, priming becomes more attractive and 3 fewer numbers hit on the 11pt. I suspect in that position it is a closer decision between the three plays.
Btw, in my given sequence, White's second roll play of 41V (i.e., bar/21 24/23) is a big though common mistake. Rory, is that what happened or was the sequence longer?
Nack