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Daily Quiz 5/6

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Friday, 6 May 2011, at 8:23 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/6 (Stick)

1:8/4*/2*
Blue isn't going to win a primeing war here, he needs to attack to be able to gain time to at least make the anchor, or even get his men out. The only question is, is he likely to get a better attack later, or at least an equally good one but with less gammons lost? After all Blue has some outfield coverage. But this is reduced when playing 14/8, and hitting 2 is a rather good attack option. I dare not hope for better and hit now.

The cube is a consideration. White has the pull here, and Blue is OK with upping the volatility to produce less efficient cubes for White. This generally also suggests the double hit - unless this play in itself generates the efficient cube, close to borderline take drop. I don't think it does, I think White should hold off with 2 on the bar.

2: 13/12 13/9
So this is how it panned out, not well, but not all bad either. And Blue still must decide whether to hit for the initiative, or try to survive for a better opportunity and less gammons. If Blue doesn't hit i think he should play as safely as possible 13/9 13/12 for 6 hitters. Getting in range of the 2 pt is nice, but ups White's hitters to 13, and the 6s which hit loose afterwards are useful springing the 3rd back man anyway. If Blue hits, I think he should go for it full throttle 6/2 13/12. Now getting hit is bad anyway and he should look to get most out of it, and 6/2 13/12 gives most covers next turn. Board breaking hits like these are right more often that I think, but I don't think it is correct here. Blue has no timing except what is needed to make the board, and while not fully primed may still easily crack even when it works. Also Blue is not out of alternatives, the open 5pt means that he will have more indirect shots at the checkers coming in, and can allow plays that split out for double coverage. And by keeping the board, Blue ensures that any later hit is more deadly.

3: Double/pass
Blue has 25 rolls to make the 6-prime, and the 6s that don't bring a man in as builder for the 2 pt, + splits the 13 pt to again give 20+ covers for the 8 pt. Big pass.

With three outfield checkers, Blue should get around 24% G after the closeout, but of course he doesn't always get a clean closeout, at least White will often come in and be able to move some or all of the outfield checkers in. I don't think it is worth playing on.

4: 7/5 6/5
Crawford, DMP-like, Blue just want to find the play that wins most. 7/5 6/5 is very tempting, esp given the 6-dup. Just playing it easy with 24/21seems to put little pressure on White.
5: 21/16
Still Crawford virtual DMP. The safe alternative seems to be 6/1 - breaking 5 may give a little play immediately against the blot on 3, but otherwise Blue will suffer from breaking the board until the end of the game. Of the plays that break a point, I prefer breaking the anchor. Getting hit after breaking mid surrenders the entire outfield and splits Blue in two. After breaking 21 and getting hit, Blue may still enter - White has 2 points open and not well diversified builders - so Blue may reenter to what looks like a playable position. at DMP where Gammons don't matter I prefer the enterprising play over the immediately safe

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