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RO's

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 7 May 2011, at 6:04 p.m.

In Response To: A cube from tonight's USBGF team match (neilkaz)

As expected, it the initial position is a clear double. However, my opp's recube, when considering some skill difference isn't so bad, although he soon made an error that may have cost him the match.




White is cafecafe

score: 1
pip: 113
7 point match
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is neilkaz
XGID=-ABaBBC--B---B--acccca---A:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.83% (G:31.35% B:1.78%) 55.22% (G:31.74% B:6.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.17% (G:13.60% B:0.89%) 44.78% (G:15.94% B:1.63%)
Cubeless Equities +0.305 +0.726
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.457 (-0.108)±0.004 (+0.453..+0.461)
Redouble/Take:+0.564±0.007 (+0.558..+0.571)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.436)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83467239
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.160.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is neilkaz

score: 1
pip: 110
7 point match
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is cafecafe
XGID=a---ACCCCA--b---b--cbbAba-:2:1:1:00:0:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.72% (G:25.97% B:1.92%) 70.73% (G:31.81% B:2.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.28% (G:11.54% B:1.14%) 29.27% (G:14.67% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities +0.442 +0.512
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.565±0.003 (+0.562..+0.569)
Redouble/Take:+0.512 (-0.053)±0.004 (+0.508..+0.517)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.435)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83467239
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.160.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2

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