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math exercise (no prize for this :)

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 9 May 2011, at 2:33 p.m.

In Response To: math exercise (no prize for this :) (Chuck Bower)

1) For the final 4 there are C(16,4) = 1820 possibilities. Choosing the winner gives 7280 possibilities. A random guess has a 1 out of 7280 chance.

Note that if the draw could be seen in advance then you would need to choose 1 person out of 4 for each quadrant of the bracket and then choose a winner from those 4. Chance of winning would then be 1 out of 1024.

2) 7280/2 = 3640. If there are at least 3641 different entries then Rory has a > 50% chance of having to pay out. Wil this be the largest thread ever here?

3) Probability (at least 1 correct) = 1 - P(none correct) = 1 - (7239/7240)^N This is > 0.5 for N at least 5019

Assuming randomly chosen entries what is the expected payout as a function of N?

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