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Rollout and thoughts

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Monday, 9 May 2011, at 3:37 p.m.

In Response To: Pottle's Law or something else? (Mislav Kovacic)

I knew that Pottle's Law ("Always run the last checker") so often works in this kind of position. But in most cases it means exposing that checker to double or maybe triple shot. I thought quintuple shot was a bit too much and so I eliminated 24/18.
I also eliminated breaking the midpoint so I was left with 8/1 and 8/2*/1. Possible game plans in this position would be to either escape our back checker or to attack opponent if he tries to do the same. Having the blot on ace pt weakens both of these game plans and dumping the checkers on low points with so much play left is almost never right.
So eliminating 8/1 I was only left with 8/2*/1. True, it still dumps the checker on ace pt but it is much better than 8/1 because:
1) It takes away half of roll from the opponent in a situation where he is likely to do something good next turn (make a new homeboard point or bar pt).
2) It gives him some bad sixes (imagine 16, 26, 36 and 66).
3) Getting hit is not the end of the world. It hurts our race but it gets us rid of the ugly Ace pt blot and we can still hit a flyshot from the bar (as opponent is likely to have a blot or two left in his outfield) or make the anchor.

Anyway, best moves happen to be - 24/18 8/7 and 24/18 6/5 after all. Paul gave some good arguments for 24/18 6/5 but rollout slightly prefers safer 24/18 8/7. Faced with quintuple shot I guess 2 targets are a bit too much. But even after 10k RO top 2 moves are still very close, with my 8/2*/1 being in 3rd place.
So lesson to learn would be: Don't be afraid to run your lone back checker as long as there are no constructive alternatives.
(Stick's article about Pottle's Law on GV is highly recommended)

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142

7 point match

pip: 136 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--a---EBCB--bBaabc-e----A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	24/18 8/7	eq: +0,166
	Player: Opponent: 54,52% (G:13,25% B:0,75%) 45,48% (G:11,93% B:0,54%) Conf: ± 0,005 (+0,161...+0,171) Duration: 48 minutes 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/18 6/5	eq: +0,157 (-0,008)
	Player: Opponent: 54,41% (G:14,42% B:0,93%) 45,59% (G:13,12% B:0,65%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,151...+0,163) Duration: 53 minutes 02 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/2* 2/1	eq: +0,139 (-0,027)
	Player: Opponent: 52,84% (G:16,50% B:0,77%) 47,16% (G:12,06% B:0,69%) Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,129...+0,149) Duration: 13 minutes 18 seconds
5.	XG Roller+	8/1	eq: -0,031 (-0,197)
	Player: Opponent: 48,89% (G:13,91% B:0,38%) 51,11% (G:12,75% B:0,48%)
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45297676 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45297676 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Pottle's Law or something else?
  Mislav Kovacic -- Saturday, 7 May 2011, at 1:55 p.m.
  • Pottle's Law or something else?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 7 May 2011, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Nack would get this one right over the board
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 8 May 2011, at 12:11 a.m.
    • Wild man strikes again
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 9 May 2011, at 11:31 p.m.
  • Rollout and thoughts
    Mislav Kovacic -- Monday, 9 May 2011, at 3:37 p.m.
    • Rollout and thoughts
      Mochy -- Tuesday, 10 May 2011, at 5:53 a.m.
  • Pottle's Law or something else? Cannot print diagram
    leobueno -- Tuesday, 10 May 2011, at 9:38 a.m.