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53P-41S-66B-31?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 11 May 2011, at 8:17 a.m.

In Response To: 53P-41S-66B-31? (Ian Shaw)

135


1O1O2X ' '4X2X2X ' ' '4O

' ' ' ' '5O2X3O1O ' '3X

53P-41S-66B-31162


Having coathored a book on how to play 31 in the early game, playing P (Point, i.e., making the 5pt) looks clear to me. If we assume 8/5 is the 3, unstacking the ace from the 6pt not only covers the valuable 5pt, but it is efficient distributionally.

Playing 24/23 with the ace seems paranoid ("if I don't button up, I'll get blitzed"). E (Each, 24/23 6/3) improves on the distribution of c (cross, 24/23 8/5), but that alone doesn't make it the better play, and surely P beats any play that spends 24/23 as its ace.

After Blue makes the 5pt, if White hits with a 2, Blue will probably have many return shots and/or he may get a fly shot or be able to make a more advanced anchor. Using the entire roll to cover the mere 9pt is lame.

I once heard that the 5pt is the 5pt, and extensive research appears to support that theory.

Incidentally, in general you are less likely to get cubed when you make a play that anchors on the 23pt (decreasing volatility). After you make a purely offensive play instead (leaving the back checkers split), your opponent might cube you and release the gammons. Your equity is sometimes higher if you make a play that should be doubled than one that shouldn't be doubled.

Nack

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