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If White's anchor is backed up from the 21pt to the 22pt, as shown in the right-hand variant, priming becomes more attractive and 3 fewer numbers hit on the 11pt. I suspect in that position it is a closer decision between the three plays.
The rollout results of the left-hand position are
- [A D18 p48] <7*4>
[A D55 p81] /1
The second rollout is only 1536 trials; the variance is through the roof. If we weight-average the two results, we get [A D24 p55].
The rollout result of the right-hand variant (White has 22pt anchor instead of 21pt anchor) is shown below.
Compare the data of the two positions (score –3–6):
- 21pt anchor: [A D24 p55] agg
22pt anchor: [D p10 A40] 10*5
As expected, D (Down, 13/7 8/7) and p (point, 11/5 6/5) are much closer on the right (margin goes from .031 to .010). I figured that D and p might both overtake A, but I didn't expect the difference to be this dramatic. The A/D margin swung by .065, and the A/p margin swung by .085.
In short, A (Attack, 8/2*/1*) is definitely the best play on the left, but it is a clear mistake on the right (as the rollout below illustrates).
| |
|---|---|
| Variant position (score is -3-6) | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 13/7 8/7 | -0.0865 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882588597 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | R | 11/5 6/5 | -0.0964 ( -0.0099) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10368 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882588597 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| • | 3 | R | 8/2*/1 | -0.1268 ( -0.0403) | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882588597 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Nack