This may come as a surprise (at least to some folks), but this is huge pass. Btw, those of you who said ND/T - you were 100% sure this is a take? (per Woolsey's rule)
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 186 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 182
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ab-bBDBB---a---abbbbA-AAB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 |
| White on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70,73% (G:29,77% B:2,39%) | 71,15% (G:31,03% B:2,61%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29,27% (G:8,49% B:0,48%) | 28,85% (G:8,03% B:0,43%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,647 | +1,350 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0,946 (-0,054) | ±0,012 (+0,934..+0,959) |
| Double/Take: | +1,127 (+0,127) | ±0,020 (+1,107..+1,147) |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31270030
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 35 minutes 35 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Variant 1
Blue's checker moved from 2pt to 3pt. Still pass, but closer one.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 186 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 181
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ab-bBDBB---a---abbbbAA-AB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 70,03% (G:28,59% B:2,16%) | 70,39% (G:30,08% B:2,45%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 29,97% (G:8,78% B:0,48%) | 29,61% (G:8,43% B:0,46%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0,616 | +1,289 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0,906 (-0,094) | ±0,011 (+0,894..+0,917) | | Double/Take: | +1,053 (+0,053) | ±0,016 (+1,037..+1,068) | | Double/Pass: | +1,000 | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Pass | | Rollout details | 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92689559
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Variant 2
White doesn't have 21pt anchor anymore. (Blue's position as in Variant 1)
Doesn't make much difference.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 186 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 181
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-aabaBDBB---a---abbbbAA-AB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 70,23% (G:28,59% B:2,15%) | 70,42% (G:30,05% B:2,48%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 29,77% (G:8,72% B:0,49%) | 29,58% (G:8,47% B:0,49%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0,620 | +1,288 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0,900 (-0,100) | ±0,010 (+0,890..+0,910) | | Double/Take: | +1,057 (+0,057) | ±0,015 (+1,042..+1,073) | | Double/Pass: | +1,000 | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Pass | | Rollout details | 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31270030
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Variant 3
White's blot from 9pt moved to 10pt, everything else as in original position. Huge swing and now it is a close take.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 187 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 182
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ab-bBDBB---a--a-bbbbA-AAB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 68,95% (G:29,30% B:2,49%) | 69,09% (G:30,41% B:2,74%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 31,05% (G:9,38% B:0,59%) | 30,91% (G:9,09% B:0,56%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0,597 | +1,233 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0,870 (-0,116) | ±0,008 (+0,862..+0,878) | | Double/Take: | +0,986 | ±0,011 (+0,975..+0,997) | | Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,014) | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Take | | Rollout details | 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16049113
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 99,2% | | Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Variant 4
White's 9pt blot moved to 6pt. Very easy take.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 183 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 182
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ab-bBDBB---a----bbcbA-AAB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 66,46% (G:29,46% B:2,81%) | 66,55% (G:30,34% B:3,12%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 33,54% (G:10,28% B:0,65%) | 33,45% (G:10,05% B:0,62%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0,543 | +1,118 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0,790 (-0,065) | ±0,011 (+0,779..+0,801) | | Double/Take: | +0,855 | ±0,015 (+0,840..+0,870) | | Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,145) | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Take | | Rollout details | 5288 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16049113
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Variant 5
White's 9pt blot is now on the midpoint. Easy take.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 190 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 182
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ab-bBDBB---b----bbbbA-AAB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 68,48% (G:27,26% B:2,09%) | 68,93% (G:28,37% B:2,14%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 31,52% (G:9,60% B:0,58%) | 31,07% (G:9,34% B:0,53%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0,561 | +1,170 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0,864 (-0,061) | ±0,012 (+0,852..+0,876) | | Double/Take: | +0,925 | ±0,016 (+0,910..+0,941) | | Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,075) | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Take | | Rollout details | 5288 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16049113
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Variant 6
White's checker is on midpoint (as in Variant 5), blue has checker on 3pt instead of 2pt. Close ND/D decision, but you'll probably receive some passes here so I would double this.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 190 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 181
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ab-bBDBB---b----bbbbAA-AB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 67,36% (G:26,46% B:1,92%) | 67,61% (G:27,28% B:2,12%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 32,64% (G:9,97% B:0,61%) | 32,39% (G:9,86% B:0,57%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0,525 | +1,084 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0,803 (-0,029) | ±0,012 (+0,791..+0,815) | | Double/Take: | +0,832 | ±0,015 (+0,817..+0,847) | | Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,168) | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Take | | Rollout details | 5254 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16049113
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 99,9% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | | Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta
Conclusion?
We must pay more attention to the details :)