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"Proving" Poker is a Game of Skill

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Wednesday, 11 May 2011, at 3:35 p.m.

In Response To: "Proving" Poker is a Game of Skill (Chuck Bower)

Look at the commodities future markets for instance, and take the 5 best for a buy and hold strategy during a 5-year period, and the 5 worst. Compare the results over the next 5-year period. I expect to see no statistical significant different between the performance of the two portfolios. Or do the same with equities; the same result.

This is a result of the efficient market hypothesis, which I think is often stated in a much too strong form, but the effortless application of a simple investment selection rule does not yield a risk-adjusted return beyond a random selection.

Showing that poker has a larger skill element than trading... or let me correct that before pissing someone off, a higher skill reward per unit invested.

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