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41S-54 and 31P-41S-54

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 2:19 a.m.

In Response To: Anyone else care to opine (and hopefully attempt to justify) (Chuck Bower)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X ' '5O

1X1X ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

41S-54 [S=X R6 D17 H41]a


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X ' '5O

1X1X ' '2O4O '2O ' ' '4X

31P-41S-54 [S H24 D38 R43 X53] /5*1


In the standard second roll position shown on the left, four plays are very close: S (Split, 24/20 13/8), X (hit-and-split, 24/20 6/1*), R (Run, 24/15) and D (Down, 13/9 13/8). H (Hit, 13/8 6/2*) is a mistake.

The right-hand diagram shows the same position (yours), but with Blue already having played 31P in addition. With possession of the 5pt, threatening the blot on the 16pt and any hit exchanges are more valuable, hence S is enhanced relative to D and R.

H (Hit, 13/8 6/2*) and X are worth more because Blue's board is stronger; OTOH, X is demoted because the 6pt starts with only five checkers instead of four, and X is further downgraded (as is R) because it fails to replenish the stripped 8pt.

The upshot is that (on the right) S is in clear first place, H lofts into second place, D into third, R into fourth, and X goes from a first-place tie to being worst of the five (according to the GnuBG rollout on this site).

Nack

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