[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Race%? Shot E% Take?

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Friday, 13 May 2011, at 12:17 p.m.

In Response To: Race%? Shot E% Take? (Ian Shaw)

Another approach to shot equity!

* White needs 16 pips to clear the mid and 11-pts * Her wastage is approx 9 pips when she fails to clear

* Her prob of clearing is 16/(114+9), 13%

* The Metric Formula (excluding E-Pips as there's contact) estimates she'll win the race 24.5%.

* Her shot Equity is 75.5 * 13%, 9.8%

If she is estimated to hit a 1/3 of the time, her expected gain is 9.8 *30%, 2.94 + 24.5, 27.44%

Majestyk





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 130
5 point match
pip: 114
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----CbDBB--BcB----accba---:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.57% (G:1.65% B:0.04%) 72.90% (G:1.67% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.43% (G:2.02% B:0.07%) 27.10% (G:2.26% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.436 +0.993
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.872 (-0.122)±0.007 (+0.865..+0.878)
Double/Take:+0.993±0.008 (+0.985..+1.001)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.007)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:95.3%
Duration: 16 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.