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Race%? Shot E% Take?

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Saturday, 14 May 2011, at 9:52 a.m.

In Response To: Race%? Shot E% Take? (Ian Shaw)

White's shot equity can increase, decrease or maintain the status quo, depending on what blue rolls next.

In the current state, blue needs a minimum of 16 pips to clear the mid and 11-pts.

* Blue clears the mid (11 rolls), 6 pips clears the 11-pt. * Blue clears the 11-pt (7 rolls), 10 pips clears the mid. * Blue incurs wastage (12 rolls), 16 pips clears mid & 11-pt. * Blue breaks bar or 8-pt (6 rolls), 20 pips clears the mid & 11-pt.

6 x 30.5, 1.82 10 x 19.5, 1.95 16 x 33.3, 5.32 20 x 16.7, 3.34 ----------------

12.44

Very close to the average 52/4

What is interesting is 16/(114+9), 13.00 (this is not shot equity)

I'm still playing a round with this idea.

What is true of shot equity is: the shorter the distance, the lower the shot equity.

When blue clears the mid-pt, shot equity is reduced.

This idea uses distance to estimate the pips to clear as a ratio of the total pip-count plus wastage.

That's all I have for now.

Majestyk

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