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SFO QF's crucial cube decision

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 14 May 2011, at 9:24 p.m.

In Response To: SFO QF's crucial cube decision (neilkaz)

Does White have a take? 4 jokers get home safely for a sure g. Of the other 32, White hits around 20 and gets g'd in almost all the 12 non-hitters. That's 16 g losses plus probably 1 or 2 more when he hits and can't contain Blue' straggler. This is a moneylike score so White needs 25% plus half of Blue's g's less recube vig to take. I think that comes to around 50% less approx 7% recube vig meaning he needs 43% cubeless chances to take this cube.

Does he win this often? 43% of 36 is around 15 1/2. Are White's cubeless chances > 75% when he hits? His 4 pt's open so definitely not IMO.

R/P.

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