OTB I had lots to think about since I play somewhat stronger than my opp. However, I was sure that I could win a G half the time from here and since most sequences where I don't get hit are enormous market losers (I am usually playing on for a G) the volatility is high. I couldn't resist recubing in spite of fears of of getting a very efficient 8 cube tossed back when closed out or when he's shooting at a 2nd blot if I roll a blocked ace at the wrong time.
Since I felt I was gammoning half the time, I was quite sure that this wasn't technically a take and noting the BG is played by humans I recubed.
Lots can happen after recubing.
1) My opp can pass even if he should take based on skill factor.
2) A weaker player won't play this as well as XG2 4 ply so I may gain a couple percent when hit.
3) Perhaps my opp won't recube properly (which based on skill factor I will hope is late)
Anyhow it went R/T followed by my gin 65. I do wish I could have saved some of this good luck for the finals.
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| ||||
| XGID=-GBba----b---A-a--bcb-b---:1:1:1:D:0:0:0:13:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.05% (G:49.99% B:0.55%) | 61.97% (G:50.43% B:1.33%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 38.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.767 | +1.511 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.809 (-0.191) | ±0.001 (+0.807..+0.810) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.068 (+0.068) | ±0.003 (+1.064..+1.071) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 8 hours 44 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.160.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2