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San Fran semis bearoff recube decision

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Monday, 16 May 2011, at 7:29 a.m.

In Response To: San Fran semis bearoff recube decision (neilkaz)

Base 3-roll 21%+, all doubles work for White except 11 which cuts it down about a 6th to 18%-. Blue misses on 2 straight single aces (7.7%) plus on 2 single aces on turns 1 and 3 or on 2 and 3 when not paired with a working double or a single ace which has already been counted (13,14 numbers a big third, which cuts these variations down to about 5%- each). Of these ~17.5% White would win about 1/5 anyway on doubles, so these add 14% win chance for a total of 32%, and + some for other small variations that might cause a miss (2 single deuces + 21 and such), I'd reckon 33%.

TP is a little higher but not too much, risking 18 to gain 50 gives 18/68 = 27/102 ~ 26.5%. Big take, and the redouble might be in question, however Blue's cube next turn do not rate to be any more efficient - in the normal variation where both take 2 off, White would be down to 14% base 2-roll, again minus one 6th for 12%-, plus about 6% for straight single aces (The 5/6 of 7.7% that White doesn't win on doubles) which is a big drop at 18%. So I'd redouble as Blue.

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