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MCG didn't like this play from the finals

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Monday, 16 May 2011, at 7:46 a.m.

In Response To: MCG didn't like this play from the finals (Bill Riles)

I agree with every word Bill said ;-)

But I also think this decision is much closer than the vote up to now indicates. There are 4 plays to consider: 16/13 16/11, 16/8, 6/3 6/1, and 6/1 4/1.

The advantage of 16/13 16/11 is that it does not waste pips, that it leaves shots while White's board is not completed, and that it minimizes shots in case we should leave a shot. The drawback is 11 shots, and that all White's non-hitting rolls play efficiently.

16/8 tries to address the latter problem of 16/13 16/11, but leaves 4 more shots. As shots are mostly deadly here, and wastage on missing rolls is not that significant, 16/8 cannot be right.

6/3 6/1 delays the run from the 16-point and leaves no shot. However, it wastes a lot of pips in what is a close race, and most of White's rolls play OK without too much wastage. Next turn you need to run with most numbers, and only doubles clear.

6/1 4/1 allows you to delay running with some 5s next roll. Compared to 6/3 6/1, the gains of that are limited, because 54, 55 and 65 will be used to run in any case, and on other rolls you'd need to waste a lot of pips. Also, your board is damaged in those scenarios, so if White leaves from the midpoint leaving a single blot (say in the scenario 53: 6/1 4/1 62: 7/1 4/2 52: 6/1 4/2 61: 13/6) you are not ready to hit. The inefficiency for the race of 6/1 4/1 is big, so I'd prefer 6/3 6/1.

Now comparing 16/13 16/11 and 6/1 6/3, I'd leave the shots now, because I don't think we get hit that more often after 16/13 16/11 compared to 6/1 6/3, when hit we often do not face a close board (you can return hit on the ace and on a very good day win a gammon from there!) while our racing chances are hurt if you burn the checkers.

But looks close to me, move the spare on the 4 back a pip, and I'd play 6/1 6/3.

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