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San Fran semis bearoff recube decision

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 16 May 2011, at 8:10 a.m.

In Response To: San Fran semis bearoff recube decision (neilkaz)

It's 4am and I'm putting off doing what I'm supposed to be doing.

First the recube take point at 5 away 5 away.

  • Double/Pass gives 5 away 3 away or 35%
  • Double/Take/Lose gives 5 away 1 away Crawford or 16%
  • Double/Take/Win gives 1 away 5 away Crawford or 84%

We'd be risking 19 to gain 49. Risk/(risk+gain) = 19/(19+49) or 19/68 = 28% as our raw take point. Our general adjusted take point figuring in recube vig is ~25%.

Now to the position at hand. Let's use the effective pip count to determine the proper action. First we need to know one of Trice's rules to get in the ballpark of the epc.

Rule 1: For an N-roll position, the EPC is 7N + 1.

Both of these positions are basically 3 roll positions so if all you know is the rule above you could assume each player's respective epc is 7(3)+1 or an epc of 22. There is actually more to these epcs than that but that's a good start. For Blue's position we have to add 3 effective pips to our final total (actually slightly less) since it's not a pure 3 roll position. There is a formula for this too but you can take a lesson with John O'Hagan or even myself now before I type that entire damn thing out. So for the player considering the double we come to an epc of 25, slightly less.

For the top player he has a free miss since he has an odd number of checkers and we will not need to add as much to his initial epc of 22. We do need to add 1 (slightly less here too) to get a final epc of 23, slightly less.

For money the point of last take for the trailer is when he's down by a number of effective pips that is no more than the number of rolls the leader has to go minus three. So here the leader has a 3 roll position so the point of last take would be 3-3=0. The point of last take is being down 0 effective pips.

The leader can double when he is within' 2 effective pips of the trailer's point of last take. Since the count we have is leader = ~25 (just under) and trailer = ~23 (just under) it would seem this would be a borderline double/no double for money. At this score with the elevated take point the double should be more clear but the take remains a snore.

Stick

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