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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/17
Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/17 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 17 May 2011, at 10:52 p.m.
Mid year resolution. I am going to try and find some time to attempt some of these Daily Quiz problems in advance. I got to thinking, I have this tremendous learning opportunity staring me in the face every day, why not try to take advantage of it? Readers, please be gentle and patient with my boneheaded answers.
1. Priming can’t be right with those guys on the ace point. Up in the race our game plan is to race, so our priority should be to escape our back checkers and this roll gives a chance to maybe do just that. 21/14. Also, an avalanche is about to fall on the 4-point – let’s get out of there.
2. I like making the 4-point. White’s position is so weak that shots will be coming soon. I want our future hits to pack some punch. I am not afraid of White’s offense. Even if if White roll’s a six, he’s got to shake some fruit off the tree elsewhere. 8/4, 6/4.
3. Even though we most likely need a hit to win this game, I don’t see us as ready to hit yet. We are outboarded, with three blots. Most 6’s 1’s and 3’s hit something, and we are a bad shake or two away from being G-balled. So call me a wimp, 24/15* is out. At this score, do we need to be extra sensitive to gammons, perhaps even thinking gammon save? I don’t know. The best strategical play seems to be 11/5, 8/5, building the board in case we hit later. But this leaves a blot, which may be wrong or could be right. Wimp factor still on, I go with 8/2, 6/3 which at least makes a 3-point board and leaves no blots.
4. I would guess Double/Drop for money. Assets for White. White has good structure and Blue holds the less than ideal 2-point, but White is on the bar against a three point board. We have a double shot at an outfield blot, plus a few additional numbers to make the 3-point on his head. So most likely White have 2 on the rack next turn. There are definite gammons in the air. I am also unsure how good White’s backgame would be, if he is lucky enough to even get that far. His timing may be tenuous. I suppose you should be a bit cautious about doubling at 3 away 5 away but let’s not be driven by fear. Despite the overage, gammons are still valuable here. I double and question whether White can even take.
5. OK, so obviously White took. Since XG roller+ might be a tad better than I, perhaps #4 is a take after all. Looking at this problem now.
If the greedy play works, no need to look at the alternatives.
White needs 31 pips plus 2 on the inside - 33 pips - or 4+ rolls to get off the G. If we peel, 1/off(4), this leaves us 7 checkers to bear off for about 4 rolls ourselves. The gammon seems to be 50/50 ish.
What is the gammon value for us? Answer, I don’t know.
What are we risking? I count 6:5, 6:4, 6:3, 5:4, 5:3, 4:3 as shot rolls, at which time we will have 9 or 10 checkers off. Worst case then our losing chances = (1/3 shot rolls) *(30% hit) *(??% we lose from there). I use Lamford’s rule of thumb to estimate chances of winning with one man closed out, even though it’s wrong. 5-10-15-20-25 for 1st 5 men off. Then 35-45-55-65-75 for men 6 through 10. Finally, 80-85-90-95-100 for the remaining men off. 91/2 off would be about 60% to win. Maybe we never even get closed out so actual win % could be a smidge higher although this could be offset by remote chance of getting a 2nd checker trapped, so I will stick with 60% to win even if we get hit. So 33% * 30% * 40% is small, maybe 5%?? Doesn’t seem like we are risking much.
Our takepoint on a recube is elevated, I get 33% [(50 – 25) / (25 + 50)]. That could be important.
Lot’s of data points here. No idea if I did them right. Worse still, I have no idea what to do with this information. How do I put these pieces together to come up with an answer?
My gut is telling me peel 4. Unfortunately, despite all the above mumbo jumbo, I have no analytical basis for this decision. I play 1/off(4)!
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