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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/18
Posted By: Mr Majestyk In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/18 (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 19 May 2011, at 11:50 a.m.
1. 3 checkers on the ace/deuce and 1 on the bar is equivalent to 40% Gammons with blue winning 75% when he rolls one of his 27 good numbers, so 30% gammons sounds about right. Even with 2 in the air, white has some cool returns that give her a round 9% gammons; winning at least 6% of the time. Can she take? Does she have more than 37%; I don't think so, D/P
2. The Keith Count or the Ward Count! The latter punish 6 pips of wastage; the former 9 pips. A case of not enough and too much; so I'll estimate 7.5 giving 45.5 vs. 50. PLT 5+45.5 or 77% Metric, D/T.
3. 53R is 1 pip shy while, 53P establshes an assest and maintains his slender race lead.
4. Build the anchor all day long!
5. If time was a factor I'd probably play 6/4 3/2 and would not think twice about it. As I'm here with my tea and biscuits I have a little extra time to spend to come up with this. Blue's WC's are currently 68% before rolling and if he hits, he'll be risking 18% with the pip count a round even. White will hit 33.3% of the time with any 1 + 22, so, the real risk is 18*33.3%; about 6%. When white misses, blue's WC's will be 81% Metric minus 6% risk = 75%. With a 1% gain looks perfectly clear that blue should hit.
Majestyk
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