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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/19
Posted By: Stein Kulseth In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/19 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 20 May 2011, at 8:46 p.m.
- 1. b/20 24/23
- Can Blue even take after picking up the dice? White will surely have position, race and threats. Now if Blue plays b/20 something, he will at least have the start of something positional, and while White threatens a blitz of sorts, she has only 9 men in the zone, and blue might eke out a take. If Blue anchors up b/24 13/8, White threatens to make the prime fast, which is almost as serious a threat, but now Blue has little counterplay. I think Blue is supposed to enter high, and then I guess 24/23 as well to get counterhits when White breaks 8 to hit, or to anchor on the 23 rather than the 24.
- 2. 13/5(2)
- 17 pips up Blue should look for safe running plays, hower 18/6 8/4 is sick, 18/10 6/2*(2) puts White on bar but is ragged and still not safe, and leaves the back man somewhat stranded. The alternative to the natural 13/5(2) seems to be 13/9(2) 6/2*(2) which does buy some time to link or escape the back men, but seems awfully TMP, and while the 9pt has value, here I feel the extra value of the 5pt and the flex make 13/5(2) the winner.
- 3. 13/8 13/11
- If Blue is hit, he must produce very quickly to stave off a must-drop cube. So while he may neither lose all games where he is hit, nor win all where he is not, it is not too far from the truth. Allowing 30% hits next turn with 8/1*, plus some when he cannot to cover, must add > 25% losses. With a gammon price almost like normal .5, Blue must then gain 50% G to hit, and that is a tall order noting that there must be a good number of gammons even after the safer plays, and that he has squandered some of these by letting himself be hit. I don't think there are enough G left to make up for the losses, even if we assume Blue to be certain to get the G after closing White out. So safe, but what is the best way? 8/6 8/3 is completely safe next roll, but 1s and 6s are problematic, and the other rolls basically gives 2 indirects next roll rather than 1 now. I think 13/8 13/11 is best
- 4. Double/take
- This should be ND/T for money, and even with the elevated TP and GP at the score, the take should be easy. But Blue should still double, as good things may definitely happen, and doubling first makes it all but impossible for White to get any value out of the cube. Paraphrasing Kit: "By doubling you are not giving White the cube, you are taking it away"
- 5. 8/5 6/5
- Leaving the man on 17 is not free, down 112-132 Blue would retain ~15% racing equity plus still some shot equity. However with White being almost out of time, having a blot and two open points in his board, there seems to be more to gain from staying - esp as Blue only loses the racing part of his equity if he actually gets hit. Blue must start his board, and as shots may come very early, 8/5 6/5 seems indicated. 6/5 6/3 seems too loose, and the clever 17/16 8/5 duplicating 4s, fails not only to nail down the point, but also fails to unstack the 6 pt and loses 1 pip of covered ground.
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