It looks like I was supposed to roll here. I knew that Rod would snap this up instantly. The problem is, I think, that quite a few hitting sequences don't lose the market by much if at all. I could see that OTB, but there also some horrors for Rod like being hit and rolling 51 from the roof and he'll face major difficulties getting home when I miss (15 rolls miss). When I considered that I am G'd in clearly more than half of my losses, I sent the cube.
However, putting any skill factor considerations aside (of course they'd make me more cautious about playin for the match) after I cube, most any checker play errors will be made by me, and XGR++ dinged a few of my later plays .010 or even .020. Although the bot may not be right on all of these, it clearly is some lost equity for me, and it needs to once again cause me to be cautious recubing him into such and easy take (noting that I don't think that I can play the containment after hitting as well as XGR+ can). Better for me to hit first and then reevaluate.
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| XGID=---BCBB------a-c--BbBcbBd-:2:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 58.05% (G:11.08% B:0.87%) | 58.49% (G:10.94% B:0.90%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 41.95% (G:25.48% B:2.65%) | 41.51% (G:28.73% B:1.75%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.053 | +0.463 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.470 | ±0.004 (+0.466..+0.474) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.462 (-0.008) | ±0.004 (+0.458..+0.466) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.530) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.4% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83467239 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.6% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 8 hours 25 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.165.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2