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-3, -5 cube action

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Monday, 23 May 2011, at 7:55 p.m.

In Response To: -3, -5 cube action (Michael Nielsen)

Double and take. Let's use Kit's approach, and assume that all Black's wins come with the cube on 4, and that half white's wins will be with the cube on 4, corresponding to aggressive redoubling by black. Assume that 2/3 of white wins are gammons, and 10% of black wins. Plugging this into the RK MET, the take point is as 30.7% GWC.

It looks clear to me that black has that here with room to spare. Black has the ace point game (and can afford to stay long), white's spare as misplaced, 9 numbers are fully blocked, and quite a number of other partially blocked. These numbers play badly for white. Black can still contain white.

The same approach also suggests that the static give point is 67.4% GWC

Big take, with the double doubtful is my guess.

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