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OTB?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 23 May 2011, at 10:05 p.m.

In Response To: OTB? (Rod)

If you are fairly certain that your opponent will drop after dancing, is pointing on your 2 correct OTB? How certain would you have to be?

It depends on what other assumptions you are making.

If we assume all other checker plays and cube actions for the rest of the game will be perfect (big ifs), and if we simplify by pretending the position is money (instead of 𥑷) and use Snowie's evaluations as arbiter:

Downside: P (Pointing on the 2pt) costs .173. Upside: Opp's drop costs him .312. Multiplying that by 4/9 (his chance of fanning) yields .139. Therefore (using these evals and assumptions), it is right to play D (Down, 13/7 11/7) even if you can somehow be 100% certain Opp will drop after P/fan.

Nack

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