First a take point refresher for those who don't have it memorized.
- Double/Pass for 5 away 4 away or 42% ME
- Double/Take/Lose for 5 away 3 away or 35% ME
- Double/Take/Win for 3 away 5 away or 65% ME
We'd be risking 7% (42-35) to gain 23% (65-42). Using risk/(risk+gain) to figure out our raw take point we have 7/(7+23) or 7/30 = ~23%. In general at this score taking our recube vig into account our adjusted take point (before gammons) dips to ~20%. (Our opponent's raw take point on a 4 cube is elevated fwiw)
Common sense should tell you that your gammon value on a 2 cube at this score is elevated since it puts you/your opponent to the Crawford game. The actual value is ~.650.
What might a good reference position be that a normal schmuck might have in mind? The first one that came to mind is 43S-33A-F-C shown below on the right with the original problem shown first on the left.
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There are of course similarities and differences but you can use one to pick apart the other assuming you know that 43S-33A-F-C is worth a bit over +.900. What I like is both positions have roughly the same pip count, the have the same inner board points made for both players, both have one man on the bar, the other on the 24pt, and the possibility of picking up a 3rd blot though of course in the original problem we have a lot more shots at that blot. The number of men in the zone in the original problem is 9 instead of 8 which is a plus for the doubler but there are just as many diversified builders which I like. The 8pt already being made is also a big plus.
In favor of the defender he has made his bar point and we, the doubler, have 3 men back. The 3 men back is really not a big issue though since we're on roll we are likely to hit his other blot (while escaping another back checker possibly) or simply anchor up and kill a lot of his counter play. All the defender's checkers are in play and he has a flexible position, always a plus when considering an early game blitz take/drop.
So is the original problem better/worse/the same as the reference position I gave? I simplify and offset in these positions and it seems to work pretty well. Extra man in the zone is compensated by 3 men back. The extra shots at the second blot are compensated for by the made bar point. It looks roughly the same so can we take? With the elevated gammon value on a 2 cube I would suspect this pushes it into pass territory.
Do I get my extra credit?
Stick