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Daily Quiz 5/22

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 8:16 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/22 (Stick)

1. double/drop
Blue has the pull in all categories, and some big market losers, and must cube. Things actually look quite bleak for White, as apart from blues killers (doubles 42, 52 and 54 w/o return hit) his remaining numbers play quite well, bringing in more wood to hit next turn, so White must hope to be missed, get a 6 to hop, be missed again if it was 61,62,64, and the win the slightly worse race.

The score is not too important here, but if anything the 2-point lead also weighs in on the side of a drop.

2. 20/14*
Making the 4pt seems wrong - both passing up the hit and the anchor, at a time when the inner board point isn't doing immediate work. 24/20 is possible, but seems a bit passive, White will still have the better of it. 20/14* at least does something definite, sending a 3rd checker back, and releases one of Blue's. Anything can happen, but I think it looks like a more even game.
3. no double/drop
I think the drop is clear here. With 13 closers to 11 enterers, Blue would already be more than a 60% fav to have good things happen first. And Blue is getting more good numbers next turn, including hits on 7, so maybe closer to 70%. And White isn't home free if he hits first, while Blue is, and is more than halfway to a gammon. The question is if Blue actually may be too good?

If Blue produces first in 65% with 30% gammons, and wins 15% of the remaining 35% with another 5% g, then cashing gives -7,-3 for 24% ME, and playing on gives 20%*6% + 45%*29% + 35%*43% ~ 30%. With the cube still available, I do not think this is all unreasonable, and in any case it seems to be right by some cushion guarding against poor estimates.

4. double/take
This is more difficult, but at least I am in doubts about the take, so the double must be right. It will take some turns for blue to close his board, and if White can jump out to the bar anchor she is OK. Also any enter/hit from mid variations may turn out well. White does have a 3 point board even if the made ace is less than perfect. I venture a take.
5. no double / take
Does not seem like blue has enough here. The hit on 23 is not all that poweful, otherwise White has as many points, and is actually ahead in the race.

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